Sunday Tampa Bay Hurricane Milton Update from Denis Phillips
UPDATE: The Sunday afternoon readings show Milton moving a bit south of Tampa Bay.
Milton has now reached hurricane strength. By the time of its arrival Wednesday, models are predicting a Category 3 hurricane somewhere along Florida’s west coast with winds at about 120 miles per hour.
The last time a major hurricane hit Tampa was in October of 1921. Back then there were only 120,000 living in Hillsborough and Pinellas. Just like Milton, that October storm formed in the western Caribbean. It appears Tampa could see its first direct hit in a century. And just like the storm in 1921, right now a Category 3 hurricane is predicted to make landfall somewhere along Florida’s west coast.
The Tampa area is right in the middle of the “cone of uncertainty.” However today’s readings have pushed the center a little bit south.
Over the next few days, listen for regular, reliable updates from Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips and his ABC Action News team on all Beasley Media Group stations (Q105, 99.5 QYK, WiLD 94.1, 98.7 The Shark and 92.5 MAXIMA). Here are the biggest takeaways from Denis’ updates overnight on what will become Hurricane Milton.
No big changes
Denis says the track for Milton still shows a landfall on Wednesday. The Sunday 5AM update from the National Hurricane Center showed the storm slowly organizing. Denis emphasized overnight that the track may not have changed in the past 24 hours, but that doesn’t mean it can’t.
When Milton’s path should be “locked in”
Denis says Tuesday will probably be the day we should have a really good idea of how strong the storm will be. The track should be pretty clear by then too. The variable for this storm is that there’s some dry air and wind shear that could weaken what is now Tropical Storm Milton. Denis says some models show these two factors could “level off intensity.” But other models do not.
Denis Phillips is confident, however, that this will be Florida’s storm so we shouldn’t expect a wild swing north or south to dodge another bullet like we have for years.
What to expect Sunday
Today will be a great day to get preparations done. The wild weather is a couple days away. Tomorrow should be reasonably calm as well. The National Hurricane Center shows tropical storm force winds arriving late Tuesday. Gather your needs if you plan to ride the storm out. Denis said this morning that if you’re not impacted by surge, you probably will not need to evacuate.
Denis says he expects Storm Surge Watches and Hurricane Watches from the National Hurricane Center to be issues at some point today.
Power outages
Denis warned that power outages could easily last for “days if not weeks” where Milton’s landfall occurs. He says it’s something you need to keep in mind if you plan to stay in place.
How Milton is different from Helene
There are several key differences between Hurricane Helene and what will become Hurricane Milton. Milton is much smaller so where landfall happens is important when it comes to wind, rain and surge. With Helene, we saw surge all along our coast. Milton will come at us sideways so inland areas that didn’t see much damage from Helene will see a lot of wind and rain with this storm as it crosses the state. But on the positive side of things, surge should only be a big problem for those who live within about 10-15 miles south of landfall.
UPDATE: The Sunday afternoon readings show Milton moving a bit south of Tampa Bay.