As Hurricane Ian makes it’s turn toward Tampa, some models are now pointing the hurricane’s landfall south of Tampa. The one piece of good news about that is the risk of surge in Tampa Bay could be less. There is still time with the nature of storms like this for the track to shift. Here are this morning’s observations from the weather experts.

Consistent rain could begin later today according to Shay Ryan from ABC Action News. Tampa Bay will start seeing tropical storm force winds between 2am and 4am. The worst of the storm with the winds and rain accumulation will begin Wednesday evening. Those could last about 36 hours. At 8am Thursday, the heaviest rains begin to lift, according to models she’s seeing.

• Denis Phillips' Thoughts from this Morning's Readings...

  Morning Ian Thoughts:1. If you read our overnight post, the models have started shifting South and East with Ian's...

  Posted by Denis Phillips on Tuesday, September 27, 2022

• Timing...

  The Tuesday 5 AM advisory and track update are in. Slight jog east. Ian now forecast to be a major hurricane as the center approaches our coast on Wed night or early Thu AM. #Ian pic.twitter.com/xdqwIhwpQF

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• Warnings...

  Tropical storm warnings have been issued north of Tampa. The hurricane warning for the Bay area continues and has been extended south into Fort Myers. Tropical storm warnings have also been issued along the Space Coast and points south. #flwx pic.twitter.com/QfzB1exnwf

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• Winds...

  TAMPA | Here is the most likely time to see sustained tropical storm or hurricane winds in Tampa with #Ian. Though sustained hurricane winds in Tampa right now are not likely downtown, gusts above 74 mph are very possible. #flwx pic.twitter.com/Ufi8RvLXpW

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• Track adjustment...

  Some adjustments to our storm surge risk graphics may be necessary later today. Lower risk of surge north of landfall point, higher risk south of landfall point. Adjusted track, would bring some stronger winds inland, even with weakening storm. Long lasting power outages likely.

  — Paul Dellegatto⚡️FOX (@PaulFox13) September 27, 2022

• Right now...

  125 mph CAT 3 #Ian has turned north and will be in Gulf soon. Subtle model shifts have necessitated NHC to adjust track a bit to south and east, which increases risk of a land falling major hurricane on our west coast. Multiple severe hazards expected for all of central #Florida pic.twitter.com/18ziOfZhwu

  — Paul Dellegatto⚡️FOX (@PaulFox13) September 27, 2022

• Finish preparations ASAP...

  🗣️ WRAP UP YOUR #HurricaneIan PREPARATIONS!
  
  Impacts:
  ☔️ Widespread flooding rainfall
  🌬️ Hurricane/TS conditions possible
  🌊 Life-threatening Storm Surge
  🌪️ Tornadoes possible in rainbands
  
  **Regardless of the track, impacts will be felt across most of the area**#FLwx pic.twitter.com/Km8AwfLLEw

  — NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) September 27, 2022

• Tornado concerns...

  Tornado watch coming for south Florida soon. #flwx #Ian https://t.co/FkTPY08obv

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• Rainfall amounts...

  Not liking where the rainfall forecast is trending. With #Ian going more east (south along our coast) that puts some HUGE population centers into excessive rainfall amounts. Totals over 20" are possible near Tampa. #flwx pic.twitter.com/sUO5WPVic4

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• From the National Hurricane Center...

  Here are the 5 AM EDT Key Messages for Major Hurricane #Ian. More: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/0uzMONna9h

  — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 27, 2022

• Sadly Florida is definitely next...

  Hurricane #Ian has made its first landfall at 4:30am eastern time in La Coloma in the Pinar Del Rio Province of Cuba. #ian pic.twitter.com/JiyrvTg6cu

  — Denis Phillips (@DenisPhillipsWx) September 27, 2022

• The latest on evacuations...

  BAY AREA #IAN EVACUATIONS:
  -Hillsborough: Mandatory zone A, voluntary zone B
  -Pinellas: Mandatory zones A, B & C.
  -Sarasota: Mandatory zone A, + barrier islands, mobile homes, boats.
  -Pasco: Mandatory zone A, voluntary B & C.
  -Manatee: Mandatory zone A (8am), voluntary zone B.

  — Chris Martinez (@WFLAChris) September 27, 2022

• Timing and Rainfall Amounts...

  The @NWSTampaBay warning of the potential for extreme flooding from #Ian with over 2 ft. of rain possible in some isolated locations. pic.twitter.com/MBVHNgjz74

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• Polk County...

  POLK COUNTY | Sustained hurricane force winds less likely in Polk County but you'll get into tropical storm winds by Wednesday evening. Gusts may exceed 70 mph at times, especially in the western part of the county. #flwx pic.twitter.com/SLT1uz5UXv

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• Rain Timing...

  Ian will be a S L O W mover. Rainfall from the storm will impact us through early Friday. pic.twitter.com/9wysCFMPx4

  — Greg Dee (@GregDeeWeather) September 27, 2022

• From the National Hurricane Center...

  Hurricane & Tropical Storm Warnings for #Ian are in effect for much of the west coast of Florida. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Today is your last day to prepare and follow evacuation orders from local officials. https://t.co/cy01fM7Od6 pic.twitter.com/qAwQAHpjDG

  — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 27, 2022

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